National

The ad reproduces an RNZ headline saying: "GST expert sounds warning about Labour's tax plan," accompanied by warning-light imagery. RNZ did publish that headline after Deloitte GST specialist Allan Bullot commented on Labour's proposal to raise the compulsory GST-registration threshold from $60,000 to $80,000. Bullot's concern was narrower than the graphic may suggest: he said raising the threshold would help some small businesses but would shift the existing GST 'cliff' to $80,000 rather than eliminate it. ([LinkedIn][1])

Analysed 10 August 2026

The ad's sole substantive claim is "$18 billion of unfunded Labour promises." There is a real basis for the figure: National published a costing document estimating Labour had announced about $21.0 billion of spending commitments over 2027/28 to 2030/31, against $2.8 billion of forecast capital-gains-tax revenue, producing an estimated $18.2 billion gap. However, the $18.2 billion figure is National's own analysis, depends on assumptions about several Labour policies, and has not been independently established as an actual fiscal shortfall. ([National Party][1])

Analysed 10 August 2026

The ad states "Disciplined spending" and says "National will balance the books by 2028/29." Treasury's Budget 2026 forecasts do show the Government's preferred operating-balance measure, OBEGALx, returning to a $2.6 billion surplus in 2028/29. However, this is a forecast rather than a guaranteed outcome, and OBEGALx excludes ACC revenue and expenses.

Analysed 9 August 2026

The video claims Labour and other opposition parties have accumulated an $18 billion "hidden bill" of spending commitments and warns that New Zealanders would pay for it through eight new taxes. It presents examples of what $18 billion could buy and then lists eight tax labels, including capital gains tax, wealth tax, land value tax and various tax increases. Some of the tax proposals shown are real policies of Labour, the Greens or Opportunity, but the video combines policies from different parties and presents the $18 billion figure and eight-tax total as though they form one agreed programme.

Analysed 9 August 2026

The ad visually contrasts a group associated with the claim "8 NEW TAXES INCLUDING A CAPITAL GAINS TAX" against another group labelled "LOWER TAXES." The capital gains tax element is grounded in a real Labour proposal, and other parties pictured alongside Labour have also proposed additional forms of taxation. However, the image does not list the eight taxes or explain that they come from separate parties with different policy platforms, so the headline presents them as a single combined tax agenda without showing how the count was constructed.

Analysed 9 August 2026

The video warns that capital gains taxes can expand beyond their original scope. It cites a proposed Dutch tax system that would tax some annual increases in the value of investments such as shares and cryptocurrency at a 36% Box 3 rate, then links that example to Chris Hipkins describing Labour's proposed capital gains tax as "simple" and "targeted." The video's central implication is that Labour's tax could later expand in a similar way, but it provides no evidence that Labour plans to tax unrealised gains, shares or cryptocurrency.

Analysed 8 August 2026

The ad states: "Labour's mates want to stop violent under 25's being tried as adults," under the heading "Soft on Crime." A viewer would understand this as claiming that a political group associated with Labour wants violent offenders aged under 25 moved out of the adult court system. The Opportunity Party previously proposed raising Youth Court jurisdiction to age 25, but its current policy no longer specifies 25, and the earlier proposal did not say that all violent offenders under 25 would necessarily avoid adult court.

Analysed 8 August 2026

The ad contrasts two claims: "BIGGEST TAX ON SMALL BUSINESSES IN NZ HISTORY" alongside one politician, and "TAX RELIEF FOR SMALL BUSINESSES" alongside another. The first is a specific historical superlative, while the second is a broader claim that current policy provides businesses with tax relief. National's Investment Boost does provide an additional tax deduction for qualifying business investment, but the claim that the alternative represents the biggest tax on small businesses in New Zealand history is not supported by the evidence.

Analysed 8 August 2026

The ad makes a direct comparison between annual food inflation under Labour and National, stating "12.3% food inflation under Labour" and "2.8% food inflation under National." The 12.3% figure is a genuine Stats NZ annual food-price figure from the June 2023 quarter, while 2.8% was also a genuine annual food-price figure in May 2025. However, the comparison selects different points in time and does not show the latest food inflation rate.

Analysed 8 August 2026