Analysis Archive

The ad says: "New Zealanders know that the National Party's empty promises have gone on too long" and "Labour is the only party with a practical plan to lower families' transport, healthcare and power bills." The first statement is political opinion rather than a verifiable factual claim. Labour does have announced policies aimed at reducing costs in all three areas, but the claim that Labour is the only party with such a plan is not supported because other parties, notably the Greens, have also published policies aimed at reducing transport, healthcare and household energy costs. ([Labour Party][1])

Analysed 10 August 2026

The ad shows a bar chart titled "BUSINESS LIQUIDATIONS" with progressively taller bars from 2023 through 2026, alongside an image of Christopher Luxon. The chart cites the New Zealand Companies Office and describes the figures as a "July year," conveying the factual claim that business liquidations have risen substantially over that period. Official Companies Office data supports the overall upward trend in liquidator appointments and shows insolvency activity remaining elevated in 2026.

Analysed 10 August 2026

The ad reproduces an RNZ headline saying: "GST expert sounds warning about Labour's tax plan," accompanied by warning-light imagery. RNZ did publish that headline after Deloitte GST specialist Allan Bullot commented on Labour's proposal to raise the compulsory GST-registration threshold from $60,000 to $80,000. Bullot's concern was narrower than the graphic may suggest: he said raising the threshold would help some small businesses but would shift the existing GST 'cliff' to $80,000 rather than eliminate it. ([LinkedIn][1])

Analysed 10 August 2026

The ad's sole substantive claim is "$18 billion of unfunded Labour promises." There is a real basis for the figure: National published a costing document estimating Labour had announced about $21.0 billion of spending commitments over 2027/28 to 2030/31, against $2.8 billion of forecast capital-gains-tax revenue, producing an estimated $18.2 billion gap. However, the $18.2 billion figure is National's own analysis, depends on assumptions about several Labour policies, and has not been independently established as an actual fiscal shortfall. ([National Party][1])

Analysed 10 August 2026

The ad claims that for every $100 the "super-rich" make, they pay $9 in tax, while a teacher pays $22. The $9 figure closely reflects Inland Revenue's finding that the median effective tax rate for 311 high-wealth New Zealand families was 8.9% when tax was measured against broad economic income, including capital gains. The teacher comparison is broadly consistent with Treasury modelling of middle-income effective tax rates, but the ad does not explain that these are effective tax rates using a broad economic-income measure rather than ordinary statutory income-tax rates.

Analysed 9 August 2026

The ad outlines Green Party tax proposals aimed at large corporations, major banks, big technology companies and property investors. It says the corporate tax rate would rise to 33% for the largest 0.7% of corporations while remaining unchanged for small and medium businesses, alongside a bank levy, a 5% withholding tax targeting offshore big-tech payments, and reversal of tax changes benefiting landlords. These descriptions closely match the Green Party's published 2026 tax policy, although the claim that the measures will "tackle corporate greed" is political framing rather than a measurable outcome.

Analysed 9 August 2026

The ad states: "Tens of thousands stood up for Papatūānuku," followed by "Keep standing" and "Bin the Bill." The image itself does not identify the Bill or explain what action the claimed tens of thousands took. The wording appears connected to opposition to the Conservation Amendment Bill, but because that connection is not stated in the image, the numerical claim is too vague to verify precisely from the ad alone.

Analysed 9 August 2026

The ad asks: "Should a teacher pay twice the tax rate of a multi-millionaire?" This reflects a real finding from Inland Revenue's 2023 High-Wealth Individuals Research Project: when tax is measured against broad 'economic income' including unrealised capital gains, the median high-wealth family paid 8.9% in tax, or 9.5% including GST, while Treasury analysis found effective tax rates for many middle-income New Zealanders were at least twice as high. However, this is an effective-tax-rate comparison using a broad economic-income measure, not a comparison of the statutory income-tax rates applied to teachers and wealthy people.

Analysed 9 August 2026

The carousel argues that New Zealand's high cost of living is driven by dependence on imported fossil fuels, saying trade-route disruptions push up fuel, transport, food and power costs and contributed to annual inflation rising from 3.1% to 4.1% in three months. It then argues that investment in renewable energy would reduce household costs. The inflation and imported-fuel points have a substantial factual basis, but the claim that New Zealand relies on imported oil and gas is inaccurate for natural gas, and the broader claim that rising costs "all come back to fossil fuels" overstates a complex set of causes.

Analysed 9 August 2026

Across the four slides, the ad argues that people should not have to choose between heating and eating and promotes the Green Party's 2026 energy plan as a way to lower power bills, expand home solar and warmer homes, fund community-owned power, and establish a publicly owned generator called Kiwipower. Those policy elements are genuinely part of the Greens' published 2026 energy plan. The strongest claim — that the plan "will lower your energy bills" — is a prediction rather than an outcome that can yet be confirmed.

Analysed 9 August 2026

The ad says New Zealanders have experienced a State of Emergency "on average every eight days this year" and concludes: "This isn't abstract. This is climate change." NEMA records show 26 local State of Emergency declarations between 20 January and 9 July 2026, all associated with severe weather, flooding or coastal hazards; counted individually, that is roughly one declaration every eight days by late July. However, several declarations occurred simultaneously during the same weather event, and the ad's categorical attribution of all of them to climate change goes beyond what those declaration records establish.

Analysed 9 August 2026

The 10-slide carousel repeatedly uses the phrase "Kinda chic" to promote a series of political and civic actions: pausing AI data centres, making sure people are enrolled to vote, taxing the super-rich, caring about the planet, giving back to communities, supporting local businesses, showing up to kaupapa Māori, taking public transport, putting people and planet over profit, and funding affordable, liveable housing. These are primarily slogans, policy preferences and value statements rather than claims about measurable facts or outcomes. The carousel contains no statistics, attributed quotations or specific factual evidence that can meaningfully be tested for truth or falsity.

Analysed 9 August 2026

The ad states "Disciplined spending" and says "National will balance the books by 2028/29." Treasury's Budget 2026 forecasts do show the Government's preferred operating-balance measure, OBEGALx, returning to a $2.6 billion surplus in 2028/29. However, this is a forecast rather than a guaranteed outcome, and OBEGALx excludes ACC revenue and expenses.

Analysed 9 August 2026

The ad says the Waitangi Tribunal found the Government breached Te Tiriti through its Treaty-clause review and called for the review to stop. It contrasts this with claims that the Government is ignoring the Tribunal's findings and wants the Tribunal itself reviewed, then promotes Te Pāti Māori policies to make Tribunal recommendations binding, create a Parliamentary Commissioner for Te Tiriti and require Te Tiriti impact statements for every Bill. The Tribunal finding and Te Pāti Māori policy commitments are real, but the ad blurs the distinction between actions of the Government as a whole and statements made by New Zealand First.

Analysed 9 August 2026

The ad depicts National, Labour, the Greens and ACT as complaining that an unspecified policy is "too hard," then contrasts them with New Zealand First and the statement, "We don't need weak leaders who don't understand New Zealand's values." No policy is identified, and the claims about weakness, difficulty and national values are political characterisations rather than specific factual propositions.

Analysed 9 August 2026

The ad reproduces a Winston Peters post arguing that Chris Hipkins supported the New Zealand-India Free Trade Agreement despite warning businesses about risks arising from differing New Zealand and Indian interpretations of an investment commitment. It also criticises National for signing the agreement before that disagreement was resolved and characterises both National and Labour as shifting the resulting risk onto businesses. The central factual elements about Labour's support and its warning to businesses are supported by Labour's own statements, while several conclusions about responsibility are political judgement rather than independently verifiable facts.

Analysed 9 August 2026

The ad contrasts the Greens' opposition to a gold mine with a news headline saying OceanaGold is expected to pay nearly $200 million in New Zealand tax and royalties, followed by the line "When they spend the mining money." The factual core is that the Greens have opposed the Waihi North expansion and other hard-rock gold mining approved through the fast-track process, while mining does generate substantial Crown tax and royalty revenue. The ad's suggestion of hypocrisy is political framing: mining revenue goes to the Crown rather than being a distinct pot of money that the Greens personally or specifically choose to spend.

Analysed 9 August 2026

The ad says: "The Greens' taxes don't stop when you do" and claims their inheritance tax would "take 33% from gifts and inheritances over $1 million." The Green Party's published 2026 policy does propose a 33% Capital Acquisitions Tax on the portion of taxable gifts or inheritances above $1 million. However, the ad omits major exemptions, including the family home, family farms, Māori land and certain Treaty-settlement assets, and its wording can imply that 33% applies to the entire inheritance rather than only the amount above the threshold.

Analysed 9 August 2026

The ad presents a split-screen contrast: "Labour" is paired with the word "Indoctrination" and an image of children looking at electronic devices, while "ACT" is paired with "Education" and an image of an adult engaging with children. The clear message is that Labour's approach to schooling amounts to indoctrination whereas ACT's represents education. The ad gives no specific policy, lesson, curriculum content, quotation, or example explaining what it considers indoctrination.

Analysed 9 August 2026

The ad compares three parties' household energy proposals, describing National's as "Budget," Labour's as "Standard," and the Greens' as "Premium." It says National would support 80,000 homes over 15 years with low-interest loans, Labour would offer up to $3,000 subsidies plus low-interest finance and a $30 million community battery fund, while the Greens would offer zero-interest clean-energy loans, solar on 40,000 public homes and a $200 million community energy fund. Most of the underlying policy descriptions are grounded in the parties' published plans, although some figures and the value-laden "budget/standard/premium" rankings are not themselves objective measures.

Analysed 9 August 2026

The ad makes one clear factual claim: "Electricity prices have jumped 20% in just two years." Official Stats NZ CPI data broadly support this: electricity prices rose 8.4% in the year to June 2025 and another 12.0% in the year to June 2026. Compounded, those increases amount to about 21.4% over the two-year period. ([Stats NZ][1])

Analysed 9 August 2026

The video claims Labour and other opposition parties have accumulated an $18 billion "hidden bill" of spending commitments and warns that New Zealanders would pay for it through eight new taxes. It presents examples of what $18 billion could buy and then lists eight tax labels, including capital gains tax, wealth tax, land value tax and various tax increases. Some of the tax proposals shown are real policies of Labour, the Greens or Opportunity, but the video combines policies from different parties and presents the $18 billion figure and eight-tax total as though they form one agreed programme.

Analysed 9 August 2026

The ad visually contrasts a group associated with the claim "8 NEW TAXES INCLUDING A CAPITAL GAINS TAX" against another group labelled "LOWER TAXES." The capital gains tax element is grounded in a real Labour proposal, and other parties pictured alongside Labour have also proposed additional forms of taxation. However, the image does not list the eight taxes or explain that they come from separate parties with different policy platforms, so the headline presents them as a single combined tax agenda without showing how the count was constructed.

Analysed 9 August 2026

The video warns that capital gains taxes can expand beyond their original scope. It cites a proposed Dutch tax system that would tax some annual increases in the value of investments such as shares and cryptocurrency at a 36% Box 3 rate, then links that example to Chris Hipkins describing Labour's proposed capital gains tax as "simple" and "targeted." The video's central implication is that Labour's tax could later expand in a similar way, but it provides no evidence that Labour plans to tax unrealised gains, shares or cryptocurrency.

Analysed 8 August 2026

The ad states that several household costs have risen "under Luxon": power bills by 26%, doctor's fees by 21%, white bread by 68%, butter by 41%, potatoes by 32%, and mince by 28%. These figures correspond to price movements Labour has attributed to Stats NZ data covering roughly June 2024 to June 2026. The figures are broadly grounded in official price data, although the graphic does not show the dates or explain that saying prices rose "under" a government does not establish that the government caused each increase.

Analysed 8 August 2026

The ad contrasts Labour's "Small Business Action Plan to back NZ businesses" with the claims that National "insults struggling business owners" and that 171,000 New Zealanders are out of work. Labour has announced a Small Business Action Plan, and official Stats NZ data show 171,000 people were unemployed in the June 2026 quarter. The claim that National "insults" business owners is political characterisation, although it is based on recent remarks by Christopher Luxon telling businesses to adopt a more adult or mature approach. ([Labour Party][1])

Analysed 8 August 2026

The ad states: "Labour's mates want to stop violent under 25's being tried as adults," under the heading "Soft on Crime." A viewer would understand this as claiming that a political group associated with Labour wants violent offenders aged under 25 moved out of the adult court system. The Opportunity Party previously proposed raising Youth Court jurisdiction to age 25, but its current policy no longer specifies 25, and the earlier proposal did not say that all violent offenders under 25 would necessarily avoid adult court.

Analysed 8 August 2026

The ad contrasts two claims: "BIGGEST TAX ON SMALL BUSINESSES IN NZ HISTORY" alongside one politician, and "TAX RELIEF FOR SMALL BUSINESSES" alongside another. The first is a specific historical superlative, while the second is a broader claim that current policy provides businesses with tax relief. National's Investment Boost does provide an additional tax deduction for qualifying business investment, but the claim that the alternative represents the biggest tax on small businesses in New Zealand history is not supported by the evidence.

Analysed 8 August 2026

The ad makes a direct comparison between annual food inflation under Labour and National, stating "12.3% food inflation under Labour" and "2.8% food inflation under National." The 12.3% figure is a genuine Stats NZ annual food-price figure from the June 2023 quarter, while 2.8% was also a genuine annual food-price figure in May 2025. However, the comparison selects different points in time and does not show the latest food inflation rate.

Analysed 8 August 2026