Inflation
Summary
The ad makes a direct comparison between annual food inflation under Labour and National, stating "12.3% food inflation under Labour" and "2.8% food inflation under National." The 12.3% figure is a genuine Stats NZ annual food-price figure from the June 2023 quarter, while 2.8% was also a genuine annual food-price figure in May 2025. However, the comparison selects different points in time and does not show the latest food inflation rate.
The 12.3% and 2.8% figures are both real Stats NZ annual food-inflation readings, but they come from different selected periods. The comparison omits the dates and wider trend, so it gives an incomplete picture of food-price changes under the two governments.
Score Breakdown
Factual accuracy
Weight: 40%
Context fairness
Weight: 30%
Evidence quality
Weight: 20%
Visual/audio fairness
Weight: 10%
What the ad gets right
- +Stats NZ reported that food prices were 12.3% higher in the year to the June 2023 quarter, during the Labour government.
- +Stats NZ also recorded annual food-price inflation of 2.8% in May 2025, during the National-led government.
- +Food inflation fell substantially from its 2023 peak after National took office.
What the ad gets wrong or leaves out
- −The two figures are selectively chosen snapshots rather than equivalent measures of each government's overall record.
- −The ad does not state the dates associated with either percentage, making them look like current or representative rates for each entire government.
- −The latest available Stats NZ figure at the time of the ad was 2.5% annual food inflation in June 2026, not 2.8%.
- −Food inflation under National has not consistently been around 2.8%; for example, it reached 5.0% in July 2025 and 4.6% in January 2026 before falling again.
- −The graphic strongly implies that the change from 12.3% to 2.8% was caused by the change of government, but food inflation is affected by many factors including global commodity prices, weather, supply chains, exchange rates, wages and monetary policy.
- −The 12.3% figure was close to the peak of the 2022-23 food inflation surge, so using it as the sole Labour comparison exaggerates the contrast.
Detailed Verdict
Both headline numbers have appeared in official Stats NZ data, so they are not fabricated. The ad is misleading because it compares a near-peak Labour-era figure with a selectively chosen National-era figure without dates or context, creating a stronger impression of a government-caused improvement than the data alone establish.
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